Seemingly a thousand times “the nattering nabobs of negativism”[1] have correctly observed that the Strait of Hormuz was open before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28.  The strait’s closure is just one measure of how much worse than the JCPOA Trump’s deal is shaping up to be – though possibly not to be.

Spiro Agnew

A lot worse not only because the strait still is not really open but is emerging as a toll road in formerly free and open international waters.  Also, because the amount of money headed to Iran appears to be many times what the JCPOA provided.  And the JCPOA’s rigorous regime inspecting Iran’s nuclear progress is already a point of contention in the negotiations.

The D minus provisionally assigned to the Trump pact emerging from the June 17 MOU with Iran, that was not signed by other combatants (most ridiculously Israel) nor other vitally interested parties (most notably Saudi Arabia) and seemingly without getting their buy-in, DOES NOT elevate the D plus grade given to the JCPOA in 2015 by those same inadequately consulted Middle East countries.

The JCPOA was the last in a series of weak responses to international aggression and crimes against humanity during Obama’s second term.  Most tragically his inaction after Assad crossed his “red line” by Sarin-gassing Syrian dissidents in August 2013 and his substantial inaction in response to Russia’s invasion and annexation of Crimea in March-April 2014.  From a man for whom I would clean the latrines.[2]

The gross deficiencies in both Iran deals – although with Trump there still is time to make it better, but more likely worse – is that they fail(ed) to address the worst components of Iran’s world leadership in state sponsored terror and its persistent campaign against stability in the Persian Gulf and greater Middle East.  Those components are Iran’s terror proxies, Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, et al. and their vast missile and drone arsenals and foundries.

The rare true thing said by Trump and Hegseth on February 28 was that the missiles, drones and proxies create a shield under which nukes can be developed and without their elimination preventing that becomes an endless whack-a-mole campaign.

While the “regime change” objective clearly stated by Trump on February 28 required foot soldiers he was never willing to deploy, the missiles, drones and proxies could have been diminished to a far greater degree than they had by June 17, when Trump folded because of domestic gas and fertilizer prices.

Trump’s newest stupidities include his musings about getting Syria to deal with Hezbollah, while criticizing Israel for continuing to degrade that terror group in Southern Lebanon.  Why? Because it has become a fly in his TACO.

Kushner, Vance and Witkoff

If it is true as reported in the New York Times, that Israel had plans to kill the Iranian negotiators as they headed to Islamabad, to negotiate with Kushner, Vance and Witkoff, the emerging schism between Trump and Netanyahu may be so serious that Israel may try to finish the job that Trump defined but ducked out of.

Regardless, it is a job unfinished and the fact that the JCPOA, like Trump’s TACO leave it that way means that a future U.S. administration will have to deal with a newly emboldened Iran and its weapons and proxies for terrorism.

[1]   Spiro Agnew 1970 but written for him by William Safire.

[2]   See HL 10 “Pride Goeth Before Obama’s Big Gift to Trump,” January 4, 2017, and “Spitzer and Aide Differ on Presidential Race but It’s a Free Country,” New York Times, February 25, 2008.